L.M. Burshtein, I.S. Sotnich
Methods for quantitative prediction of hydrocarbon resources: current state and challenges
DOI 10.47148/0016-7894-2025-3-114-123
Key words: oil; gas; resources; resource breakdown; petroleum potential; quantitative assessment methods.
For citation: Burshtein L.M., Sotnich I.S. Methods for quantitative prediction of hydrocarbon resources: current state and challenges. Geologiya nefti i gaza. 2025;(3):114–123. DOI: 10.47148/0016-7894-2025-3-114-123. In Russ.
Funding: The work was carried out within the framework of the scientific topic of the FNI State Program FWZZ-2022-0007
Against the background of a decrease in the volumes and deterioration of the structure of identified reserves, the requirements for a quantitative assessment of resources – the basis for planning geological exploration for oil and gas — are increasing. The article is devoted to the analysis of methods for assessing hydrocarbon resources and related problems. The methodology and specific methods for quantitative forecasting of hydrocarbon resources have been developed since the beginning of the 20th century with the active participation of domestic specialists. The basic concepts of the theory of quantitative forecasting are considered. The purpose of the forecast is to create an information base for the economic assessment of hydrocarbon resources, planning exploration work, subsoil licensing programs, and the development of the oil and gas production complex. The structure of resources includes their differentiation by physicochemical and geological characteristics and parameters: types of reservoirs, deposits and traps, depth, elements of tectonic zoning, the size of accumulations, recovering factors, etc. The objects of the forecast are determined by oil and gas geological zoning. There are two main approaches. The first is to identify sedimentary rock basins, oil and gas formation centers and oil and gas accumulation zones characterized by the unity of hydrocarbon accumulation processes. The second involves identifying objects (provinces, regions and districts) within which exploration and prospecting are carried out on a single methodological basis. Other objects are also used, such as etalon, estimated, licensed or planned for licensing subsoil areas. The scale of the forecast corresponds to the stages of geological exploration and the ranks of the objects being assessed: supraregional, regional, zonal and local. Taking into account the relationships between standards and objects of assessment and the accepted principles of forecasting, it is proposed to identify the following groups of methods: expert, analogy, genetic and based on the analysis of the results of exploration work. Some practical and methodological problems of quantitative forecasting of oil and gas potential prospects are formulated: the lack of unified methods for constructing geological models of the objects being assessed, a limited number of available reference objects, insufficient consideration of the natural stochasticity of oil and gas genesis processes, the lack of an updated “Methodological Guide”, etc.
Lev M. Burshtein ORCiD Scopus
Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences,
Corresponding Member of the RAS
Chief researcher, Head of laboratory
The Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics,
Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
3, prospekt Koptyuga, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
e-mail: levi@ipgg.sbras.ru
SPIN-код: 2376-280
AuthorID: 68543
Inga S. Sotnich Scopus
Candidate of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences,
Senior Researcher
The Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics,
Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
3, prospekt Koptyuga, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
e-mail: SotnichIS@ipgg.sbras.ru
SPIN-код: 9751-3616
AuthorID: 895839
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